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07/19/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Toronto Raptors are moving in a new direction, the focus no longer on the talents of Chris Bosh, but on a collective approach to playing the game.
Bosh recently joined LeBron James and Dwyane Wade in Miami, leaving a giant hole in the Raptors' front court, a 24-point and 10-rebound-per-game hole that general manager Bryan Colangelo has been working feverishly to fill.
With Bosh out of the picture, the dynamics of the team will shift immensely and Colangelo has made it known that speed, athleticism and depth will become the hallmarks of the organization going forward.
With the long-anticipated trade that sent Hedo Turkoglu to the Phoenix Suns for Leandro Barbosa completed last week, the transformation process has begun. The 27-year- old Barbosa fits to a tee the type of player the Raptors will need to employ if they plan to successfully implement their new approach on the hardwood.
"His speed, quickness and scoring ability will mesh well with our desired playing style and talented young athletes,' said Colangelo in a news release following the trade.
"With the departure of Chris Bosh now real, this trade fits well with our plan of adding talent to the roster while establishing future salary cap flexibility."
Known as "The Brazilian Blur" because of his neck-breaking speed, the six-foot- three, 202-pound combo guard made a career out of backing up two-time MVP Steve Nash in Phoenix, while adding even more valuable minutes by his side at shooting guard.
During the 2006-07 season, his best as a pro, Barbosa averaged an impressive 18.1 points, 4.0 assists while sporting a .434 shooting percentage from three- point territory, numbers that landed him the NBA's sixth man of the year honors.
The 2009-10 campaign was a tough one for Barbosa. Hampered by a wrist injury that would eventually require surgery in January, he averaged only 9.5 points and 1.5 assists in 44 games last season in an off year for the Sau Paulo native.
If healthy, expect him to take a central role on a young Raptors squad where he will fit in nicely beside up-tempo wingmen DeMar DeRozan and Sonny Weems.
Colangelo's plan to re-tool the roster took another leap forward with the re- signing of multipurpose man Amir Johnson to a five-year $34-million-dollar deal. Johnson could end up being a bargain down the road, as there are few Raptors that can run and rebound with his tenacity.
Linas Kleiza, 24, of the Denver Nuggets is another player that may suit up with the Raptors next season, as the Nuggets are not expected to match an offer sheet put forward by Colangelo. Boasting a dynamic skill set, the six-foot- eight, 245-pounder could vie for a starting job next year at either small forward or power forward.
Add six-foot-11 rookie power forward Ed Davis and the Raptors are in the midst of building a roster full of tough and athletic bodies, capable of success at multiple positions.
Ultimately, it will be up to head coach Jay Triano to capitalize on this new depth and roster flexibility while employing a balanced scoring attack.
Barbosa's speed, vision and scoring ability will be an integral to that end, as the Raptors aim to succeed by running teams out of the gym next season. With Bosh no longer the team's offensive security blanket, the door is wide open for a facilitator to take charge, and Barbosa may be just the player to jump into that role.
<< Four finalists return to Buck Buchanan Award Watch List
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The race for the 2010 Buck Buchanan Award,
sponsored by Fathead.com, kicked off Monday with The Sportsbook Betting Lines's
announcement that four finalists from last season are part of a stellar 20-
player Watch List f
<< Breakers claim third successive win
Cambridge, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Breakers earned their third
straight win on Sunday as they downed the Washington Freedom, 2-1, at Harvard
Stadium.
The Freedom took the lead just two minutes into the game through N
<< Mitchell and Krystkowiak join Avery Johnson in Jersey
East Rutherford, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Former NBA head coaches Sam Mitchell
and Larry Krystkowiak have been named assistants for Avery Johnson with the
New Jersey Nets.
John Loyer, Popeye Jones and Tom Barrise were also named to Johnso
<< Pirates, Brewers renew rivalry in Steel City
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Pittsburgh Pirates are coming off perhaps their most
complete victory of the season. They'll need that momentum given their
struggles versus the Milwaukee Brewers this season.
The Pirates will try to snap a
AP Source: Rich Cho named new Blazers GM >>
PORTLAND, Ore. (AP) -A person with knowledge of the hiring process says the Trail Blazers have named Oklahoma City assistant GM Rich Cho as Portland's new general manager.The person spoke to The Associated Press on Monday on condition of anonymity b
Kovalchuk heading back to New Jersey >>
Newark, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ilya Kovalchuk is heading back to New Jersey and
will re-sign with the Devils.
According to the team's website, the Devils will hold a Tuesday afternoon
press conference at the Prudential Center to make it
Liverpool wins race to sign Joe Cole >>
Liverpool, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Former Chelsea midfielder Joe Cole has
agreed to sign a four-year contract with Liverpool, the club announced on
Monday.
The 28-year-old Cole left the Blues last month after he was not offered a
Padres extend manager Black's contract >>
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Diego Padres announced Monday that
they have extended manager Bud Black's contract through the 2013 season with
club options for the 2014 and 2015 campaigns.
"I am really happy to announce that
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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